Why kerosene prices doubled this week — and when they'll settle
Following Gulf disruption, jet fuel hit a 3.5-year high — and heating oil tracks jet fuel, not crude. Here's what to do with your tank in May.
If your supplier’s quote suddenly doubled this week, you are not alone. Across the UK, kerosene quotes that sat near 65 pence per litre in February have rocketed past £1.20 — and emergency drops are being priced as high as £1.50.
The cause is not a UK shortage. It is the global jet fuel market.
Heating oil tracks jet fuel, not crude
This is the bit most homeowners miss. Domestic heating oil in the UK is 28-second kerosene — chemically almost identical to Jet A-1 aviation fuel. Refineries make both from the same fraction. So when global jet fuel demand spikes, heating oil gets pulled along, even if Brent crude barely moves.
Following the latest Gulf disruption, jet fuel benchmarks hit a 3.5-year high. Rerouting flights and military demand both pull on the same barrel pool that fills your home tank.
What to do this week
- Don’t panic-fill if your tank is more than half full. Spreads on emergency drops are punitive — wait two to four weeks if you can.
- If you’re below a quarter, fill now. Running dry triggers an air-lock service call (£90+) plus a same-day surcharge.
- Order in 1,000L+ tiers. Volume discount kicks in at 900L; below that, delivery is paid.
- Lock the quote within 60 minutes. Quotes are valid for an hour; market moves can erase the saving.
When will it settle?
Historical pattern: jet fuel spikes from geopolitical events typically half-revert within 4–8 weeks as routes re-balance. We’re unlikely to see February’s 65p again this year, but a settle into the 85–95p range by mid-summer is the central scenario.
Watch for the next signal: if jet fuel inventories at Rotterdam drop below their 5-year average, expect another leg up. If they normalise, prices will ease.